Saturday, February 3, 2018
The almond market for this entire year; Summarized by watching YouTube videos of "Tesla Insane Mode Reactions"
What I was saying and thinking in July-October: We’re coming in into a record crop, but pricing and demand are in a good position. I recommend being aggressive on sales, moving inshell early to India and China and keeping EU full for holiday season. By the time we get to January, many of those markets will be full of product and looking ahead to a 2018 crop that will likely break records (based on increased acreage alone). Pricing should settle down a little in that time, but no dramatic price changes.
What I didn’t see coming: The crop looks like it will be 100M lbs. more than I thought (I was at 2.20 for most of the year) but the extra lbs. almost don’t matter. We’ve had month after month of record shipments, strong sales and record commitments. This level of consumption hap propped up pricing and put most packers into a very comfortable sold position moving into bloom. The industry will probably be 70% sold by the end of Jan with the remaining 30% for the second half of the year (Feb-July).
Overall the industry is in great shape with very good and very stable pricing throughout the 2017 crop so far. Looking forward to the next position report on Friday that should show yet another very strong month in January.